All three promoted clubs to go down? The stats around relegation

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For the last two seasons, the three teams that have been promoted from the Championship have experienced immediate relegation.

Will the newly promoted Burnley, Leeds, and Sunderland break this cycle this year?

How poorly did the last six promoted teams actually perform?

In terms of points, quite poorly.

From the 1996-97 season, which marked the beginning of three teams being promoted to compete in a 38-game Premier League, the average points among them has been 113.

In the current season of 2023-24, Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United recorded a historically low total of just 66 points collectively.

Last season's promoted teams, Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton, fared even worse, accumulating a scant 59 points.

Two seasons ago, supporters could have reasonably anticipated that at least one of the newly promoted trio would elude relegation the following year.

Before the last two seasons, the only other time in Premier League history where all three promoted teams were relegated in their first season was in 1997-98, involving Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace.

Bolton, however, managed to secure 40 points and was relegated only on goal difference.

On the flip side, there have been four instances when all three promoted teams managed to stay up.

The most recent occurrence was only three years ago when Fulham, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest successfully avoided relegation.

What amount of points is necessary to evade relegation in the Premier League?

Since relegation has existed, fans have endeavored to determine the minimum points required for survival.

So what target should Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland, and others strive for?

Traditionally, it has been believed that 40 points suffice for Premier League survival.

This belief stems from the fact that only three teams have ever achieved 40 points in a 38-game season and still faced relegation.

The teams are West Ham (42 points in 2002-03), Sunderland (40 points in 1996-97), and Bolton (40 points the following year).

However, considering that all three instances occurred over 20 years ago, is it time to establish a lower threshold?

In the past decade, the average points accumulated by the team in 18th place—which is the amount needed to surpass for survival—has been precisely 32.

Tottenham wrapped up last season in 17th place with 38 points, yet, due to the struggles of the promoted teams, they would have remained safe with just 26 points.

The previous season, Nottingham Forest secured 32 points in 17th place—this total included a deduction of four points—but they ultimately needed only 27 points to stay in the Premier League.

It is evident that teams ascending to the Premier League are facing increasing challenges in being competitive, which allows those already in the league to require fewer points to avoid relegation.

In the last two seasons, the best team promoted from the Championship has averaged 25.5 points, while the weakest team that wasn't promoted has averaged 35.

This starkly contrasts with the two seasons before, during which the top newly-promoted team averaged 49 points, while the lowest non-promoted club averaged just 30.

Does performance in the Championship hold any significance?

Leeds and Burnley stand out as two of the most formidable teams ever to gain promotion to the Premier League. Historically, prior to the recent two seasons, trends indicated that their chances of avoiding relegation were quite high.

Currently, dominating the Championship does not guarantee survival in the top tier.

Only five teams have been relegated immediately after achieving promotion with at least 95 points, and notably, four of these instances occurred within the last four years. In contrast, Sunderland earned 76 points last season, finishing in fourth place and securing promotion via the play-offs.

Of the 11 teams that have been promoted through the play-offs in recent years, seven dropped back down the next season.

During this period, only Brentford, in the 2021-22 season, managed to accumulate more than 40 points after going up, finishing with 46 points.

A strong start is essential.

The performance of each promoted team at the beginning of the season serves as a significant predictor for their chances of remaining in the league.

In the last decade, every promoted team that gathered 11 points or more in their first 10 matches has managed to stay up, while those with fewer points have faced a near certainty of returning to the Championship.

It would be beneficial to save this article and revisit it on November 1. By this date, all three promoted clubs should have completed 10 games, though fixture schedules may still change.

Notably, the two teams that managed to avoid relegation despite poor starts were Bournemouth in the 2015-16 season (with eight points after 10 matches) and Nottingham Forest in the 2022-23 season (with five points after 10 matches).

Is financial disparity the key issue for relegation in the Premier League?

What makes it so challenging for newly-promoted teams to compete effectively in the Premier League? Financial expert Kieran Maguire indicates that financial constraints are "certainly a contributing factor."

"The clubs that are promoted face an inherent disadvantage,” he explained to BBC Sport. “According to the current Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), teams that have participated in the Premier League for the last three seasons can incur losses of up to £105 million across a three-year period.

"Conversely, most newly-promoted teams are restricted to a loss of £61 million over the same timeframe. This translates to a limit of £13 million during the Championship season and £35 million in the Premier League.

"This £44 million disparity in financial capabilities has given rise to a new middle tier in the Premier League, comprising clubs that are not competitive enough for European qualification but are also quite unlikely to become embroiled in relegation struggles.

"And those in the middle are not going to support changes that could worsen their chances of staying in the league."

'Leeds focuses on data' - how newly promoted teams are attempting to defy relegation patterns

Leeds has developed a strategy for steering clear of relegation. Physicality.

This has been the focal point of the summer for the club, where there is a strong conviction that the key to avoiding dropping down involves attributes like height, strength, and success in aerial duels in both penalty areas.

The first seven players Leeds has brought in this summer average a height of 6 feet 2 inches, illustrating this line of thinking.

For their prospects of survival to be viable, it is crucial that most of these new arrivals make an immediate impact, and their proactive recruitment approach will certainly facilitate this.

Nevertheless, they also count on the newly promoted teams to stumble and a couple of seasoned Premier League clubs to encounter challenging seasons.

While their analytic approach may instill hope in their quest to evade relegation, ultimately, matches are decided on the pitch, not through analysis.

'Burnley more equipped this time around'

The previous time Burnley set out to face a Premier League season, they had just clinched the Championship title, being the most formidable team in the lower division.

They subsequently invested around £100 million in the summer transfer period, yet still faced relegation.

However, despite only modest expenditures so far and the departure of significant players from the last season - James Trafford, CJ Egan-Riley, and Josh Brownhill - it seems that most fans believe they have a better chance of defying the odds this time.

While the likelihood remains that they could face relegation, under Scott Parker, they are likely to give themselves the best chance of avoiding it.

They won't be sidetracked by notions of adhering to a specific 'style of play' because that’s how it is perceived one should act.

Last season's promotion and a record number of clean sheets were achieved through a collective mindset, focusing on defending and being tough to defeat. This philosophy will form the foundation of their upcoming season.

'Reinvigorated hope in Sunderland'

After eight years away, Sunderland is preparing to commence another Premier League season, with the league's dynamics having transformed significantly during this brief period.

The gap between the Championship and Premier League has reached unprecedented levels.

Currently, teams like Brentford, Bournemouth, and Brighton stand out as successful examples of clubs that have broken the cycle of fluctuating between the Premier League and Championship, boasting recruitment strategies admired by many.

While Sunderland follows its own sustainable pathway emphasizing youth and talent developed from the academy, they have taken the plunge by investing over £100 million in the transfer market to secure their top-flight status.

Sunderland is undergoing a transformation, and owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus deserves commendation for his ambitious vision. The financial choices made this summer have surely been considered carefully and thoughtfully.



A fresh sense of hope has emerged, and supporters of Sunderland will be looking forward to whether his aspirations and the remarkable path - the foundation of which was laid by their promotion to the Championship in 2022 - can carry on into the Premier League.